Thats not good news for affordability or Utahs housing shortage, which they calculate hit 31,000 units after the big home building boom of 2021. The client gave a slightly crooked smile to suggest that I am not only biased but also a Realtor who makes a living by selling properties in Utah. Major Utah cities covered in this report: These Utah real estate reports, data, forecasts, and market trends are provided for informational use. Utah benefits from a strong economy, and, despite Utah housing prices being higher than the national average, there is still more demand for houses than available inventory. This trend continued through the pandemic resulting in record-high home prices and rental rate growth. Housing market predictions for 2023 vary, depending on the regional market and who you talk to, but no one is predicting a stellar year for buyers or sellers and certainly not for homebuilders. , Homes that sold above list price likely received multiple offers. Given the Utah housing market forecast 2022, here are the top real estate markets any wise investor can add to their real estate portfolio. West Valley City is assimilated to a suburb of Salt Lake City, but it is also the second most populous city in the state, with 140,230 residents. I am not concerned by this and expect the market to moderate as it comes to terms with higher financing costs. Copyright 2023 Deseret News Publishing Company. The median sale price for a house in West Valley City was $436,500 in September 2022, representing a 2.9% increase in year-over-year comparisons. But Wood is more bullish than Eskic. A high or growing percentage of homes selling above list price indicates that the housing market is competitive and bidding wars are becoming more common. In addition, while year-on-year figures still show growth, monthly data is beginning to tell a different story of dropping prices, a trend that is expected to continue through the rest of 2022 and into 2023. The Utah housing market does not yet significantly favor home buyers but, given the data discussed in this report, it has certainly shifted away from sellers and into neutral territory. I dont think thats happened yet.. It isnt easy to quantify the benefits of delaying purchasing your primary residence. READ REDFIN'S, Do not sell or share my personal information. Price forecasts for this year (are) somewhat uncertain, Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, told the Salt Lake Board of Realtors crowd on Friday. Utahs housing experts continue to shy away from the word crash, since what happened in 2022 is still nothing like what happened after the 2006 housing bubble popped. So Branca said he made the decision to back out of the market, hoping to maybe consider buying again when interest rates and potentially prices come down. However, despite the increased inventory in the past months, there were only three months of housing supply available in September 2022, still a long shot away from the five to six months required for a balanced market. It would slow, but it wouldnt be stopped like it is now.. In January 2023, there were 8,551 homes for sale in Utah, up 81.9% year over year. This was down 45% compared to the same period the previous year and down 27.8% compared to the third quarter of 2022. Historically speaking, real estate only becomes more expensive over time. Why is it taking two weeks, a month, six weeks?. Love hiking, biking, or camping? Instead, he was actually looking at a mortgage payment of up to $4,200 a month, depending on the days rate. So unless we have a real serious recession, I think prices have some support given our economy.. While overvalued does not necessarily mean that a housing market will crash, these markets are at a higher risk of a sharper correction when economic conditions change. The cops came, quipped Dejan Eskic, senior research fellow at the University of Utahs Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, one of Utahs leading housing experts. Historically low-interest rates, job growth, and pandemic conditions made Utah a highly attractive state for both homebuyers and investors. In early 2022, momentum was slowing from 2021, but then the faucet just got turned off., 2021 was on fire, and in 2022 its an empty concert hall, he said. As mortgage rates are at record highs in 20 years by 7.08%. The party was over. They can step back and wait for the dust to settle., As a result, Wood predicted price declines that have been tumbling since May will stabilize by the third quarter of 2023, and the annual median sales price for 2023 will likely be within a few percentage points one way or another of 2022., Worst case scenario, Wood added, prices down about 5%; best case scenario, prices equal to 2022.. We break down our data by county, but we cover major cities in this region including Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Provo, and West Jordan. They also anticipate prices to grow 8.5% and sales to grow 15.2%. Doing read more, Click here to browse our Real Estate Agent Directory and contact top-rated agents in your area! Woods research colleague at the Kem C. Gardner Institute , Dejan Eskic, is more bearish, predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. So far, Utah home prices are still up year over year, but theyve so far fallen over 9% from their peak in May, according to Eskic. The direction and pace at which housing supply changes indicate whether the options for buyers are increasing or decreasing. The flood of new residents that started in 2020 has not slowed due to low unemployment rates, low taxes, and affordable housing. They can also indicate whether homes are lingering on the market or being sold faster than sellers are listing them. Boating in Utah can be an unmatched experience. The Utah housing markets that are most overvalued are Ogden, Provo, and Salt Lake City. Moodys Analytics expects a peak-to-trough U.S. home price decline of 10% or a 15% to 20% decline if a recession hits. Heres what volatile mortgage rates are doing to your purchasing power, Utah housing prices down from spring peak but theyre still higher than last year. Here are their year-over-year predictions for the Salt Lake City housing market in 2022: Forecasted home sales change: +15.2%. John Burns Real Estate Consulting now expects U.S. home prices to fall 20% to 22%. The average months of supply is 3 months, up 3 year over year. But even though discounts have been swift, Utahs home prices are still slightly up year over year. (Now) its resetting, its balancing, its coming down.. Since Utah house prices are higher than the national average, it should come as no surprise that the demand has gone down noticeably since July 2022. But housing costs werent nearly as high back then, Eskic interjected. Here are what other organizations and firms are predicting: Glenn Kelman, CEO of Redfin, predicted on a Jan. 4 episode of Barrons Live that the real estate market, particularly when it comes to real estate agents, will experience a painful constriction in 2023. While at the beginning of the year, homebuyers could purchase a home at an interest rate of around 3%, currently borrowers are looking at more than 7%. He graduated from Spanish Fork High School. But high mortgage rates, some weeks hovering over 7%, did trigger a type of collapse in demand and sales. It just seems so odd to be in such a comfortable position and not have that as a practical option. Sellers are reducing prices as homes stay on the market longer. After a long, over two-year frenzy, Perry said buyers had more breathing room to negotiate prices and complete their due diligence. According to Realtor.com data, the current median days listed in Utah is 52, the highest since the onset of the pandemic, but still a ways away from pre-pandemic figures. How is the real estate market in Utah? Median sale price: $611,600. Real estate investors number by the thousands in the US. This was down 45% compared to the same period the previous year and down 27.8% compared to the third quarter of 2022. There are currently 8,551 residential homes for sale in the United States. 10 Best Neighborhoods in the Nashville Real Estate Market 2019. Although demand has softened compared to last year, pushing home price growth into single-digit territory for the first time in 12 months, moderation in home price growth may encourage more buyers to return to the market in the months ahead, and may also be welcome news for sellers aiming to sell and buy at the same time., Copyright 2023 Deseret News Publishing Company. Branca said if someone like him is struggling to buy, he cant imagine what its like for people living on lower incomes. From peak-to-trough, with the peak being May 2022, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the mid to low teens, depending on what happens with interest rates over coming months. These two organizations along with Freddie Mac and the National Association of Realtors predict that rates will steadily rise throughout 2022. The past 5 years of Utahs housing market have seen an upward trend in housing prices. It is equally impressive to see that the unemployment rate remained at a very low level even as the state added over 52,400 people to the workforce. So Branca wasnt expecting to buy his dream home. Search and compare real estate agents near you. The average sale price in the fourth quarter rose a modest .6% from the fourth quarter of 2021 to $604,105. READ REDFIN'S FAIR HOUSING POLICY. Some buy-and-hold while others enter the rental market for passive income. Utah faces a shortage of 31,000 homes. Eskic, however, is predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. These factors positioned Utah in the top spot on the Bankrate Housing Heat Index. Market time rose 22 days from the third quarter of 2022. Additional links: Historical Utah Data Hed hoped for a modest single family home, a starter home to share with his partner, to at least get their foot in the door of home ownership and out of the one bedroom, one bathroom apartment theyre currently renting in Salt Lake City. At the very least, folks can expect some sort of moderation over the next few years but not a decline. (2023), Cost of Living in Hawaii: What You Need to Know (2023), How to Find the Best Mortgage Rates (2023), Outdoor activity opportunities are unlimited. The median home price has increased from $345,000 in September 2019 to $553,500 in September 2022, with a peak of $577,500 in May 2022, representing a staggering 60.43% increase in 36 months, well above the national average. Gone are the days of brutal competition. Despite the wild 2021 ride we all took inflation, a spike in gas prices, and a persistent global health crisis 2022 is looking to be another unique year for the Utah real estate market. The housing market in West Jordan is competitive, with the average listed property receiving five offers and selling within 27 days on the market. Once the market rebounds, buyers can be in an even more powerful position when the market shifts back to a more lopsided sellers market. Earlier in 2021, Utah was considered as one of the hottest markets in the country, second only to Idaho. Therefore, Wood is predicting a couple of quarters in 2023, with home prices likely the most vulnerable in the first and second quarter of the year. Look at housing prices, they were sticky. The question is, how far will that correction run and what will it mean for home prices in 2023? In January 2023, 17.5% of homes in Utah sold below list price, down 27.8 points yearover year. Preston was born in Provo, Utah, and raised in Spanish Fork, Utah. How much do homes in Saint George, UT cost? However, because of the stiff competition, Utahns who are looking to buy property should prepare themselves not just financially and physically but also mentally. I dont think were going to get a recession now, in Utah., Eskic, smiling, said he and Wood should make a bet on stage. Year over year, prices rose in four markets but pulled back in the other three. So many factors come into play. Listing activity fell 8.3% from the third quarter, but that wasnt surprising given seasonal factors. Home sales: 3,219 26.7% less than a year ago. Copyright: 2023 Redfin. Short-term correction followed by continued growth and price increases. How far will they fall? I think buyers will adjust, for one thing, Wood said, pointing to a chart that he said showed its very rare in Utah for housing prices to decline.. Next came Sacramento, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tampa. This would place . The National Association of Realtors, however, is predicting 2023 will be a year the market will regain normalcy, expecting mortgage rates to stabilize, home sales to sag and prices to moderate. Realtor.com isn't the only group offering a strong forecast for the Salt Lake City real estate scene in 2022. The number of newly listed homes was 1,954 and up 1.4% year over year. Park City Data And it looks like that trend is not going to end any time soon. Nevertheless, at the time of the writing, the Utah housing market remains a sellers market due to the lack of inventory. Average income: 74197. Therefore, the impact of increasing interest rates has been felt more in the state than in other parts of the country. There was a 98.0% sale-to-list price, down 2.7 points year over year. In addition, Utahs median listing price is 36% more than homes across the United States. Historically, brief and prolonged price declines in Utah went hand in hand with joblessness and recessions, both of which dont seem likely in the next two to three years. With their buying power significantly diminished, house hunters find themselves priced out of the market or may consider postponing their home-buying plans until interest rates return to a more affordable level. In addition, people are moving to Utah because of the family-friendly environment, high-ranking school systems, and endless outdoor activities available along with the National parks. All of this, of course, depends on how local markets fair. Predictions include price drops, terrible consolidation, but better buyer balance, 2022 was a roller coaster year for the housing market, growing number of experts and firms are predicting U.S. home prices will fall, nations median home price ballooned by over 41%, The great reset of 2022: The year the Fed had no mercy on the housing market, U.S. navigating pandemic housing bubble, Fed chairman says. The strong demand and limited supply of home inventory will push against price declines and keep home prices relatively stable over time. It will test their mettle and resolve as it will be an exercise in decision-making and patience. In January 2023, home prices in Utah were down 3.0% compared to last year, selling for a median price. However, the spike in listing prices, mortgage rates, and rents will somehow be offset as income is also expected to rise. Housing prices have skyrocketed so much, now more than half of Utah's households are unable to afford the state's median priced home, which for single-family homes was $460,000 in 2021. Sales fell across the board compared to both the fourth quarter of 2021 and the third quarter of 2022. 27.7% of homes sold above the asking price. If you dont see our email and have already checked your spam or junk folder, please give us a call at 1 (800) 319-0511. Even before COVID swept across the world, the Utah housing market was already out of reach for 63% of renter households. He has a background in sales and marketing and construction as a Project Superintendent. How to Find Multi Family Homes for Sale in 2020. Thats the story of 2022. Sign up now for a free 7-day trial and get 15% off on your subscription. REDFIN IS COMMITTED TO AND ABIDES BY THE FAIR HOUSING ACT AND EQUAL OPPORTUNITY ACT. Browse through the largest marketplace of Real Estate professionals, We have an in-house team that will guide you through the process. Each year, the Sal. Wood and Eskic expect a staggering 40% to 50% drop in the number of new homes produced in Utah over the next two years. Roughly two-thirds of the population live in the Wasatch Front in the north-central part of the state, which includes the capital city, Salt Lake City. While Eskic said he agrees with Wood about Utahs strong job market, but were operating in a different environment because of the rates and prices.. You can find some of the most distinguished and reputable real estate agents using Mashvisors real estate agent directory. Utahs housing experts disagree over how much home prices will decline, though they remain confident that 2023 will not bring a full blown, 2007-like crash, and that Utahs strong job economy will still largely insulate it from any negative impacts of a recession. At the same time, the number of homes sold fell 34.7% and the number of homes for sale rose 81.9%. A bubble is highly unlikely at this point in time because a bubble is defined as a prolonged period of actual price decline, not moderation or deceleration. The Typical U.S. Home Changes Hands Every 12 Years, Down From 2020 Peak, Market Recovery Hampered by High Housing Costs, Low Supply in January, Housing Market Update: Sale Prices Flatten, Demand for Mortgages Falls as Rates Climb, Housing Market Predictions 2023: A Post-Pandemic Sales Slump Will Push Home Prices Down For the First Time in a Decade, Redfin Predicts a More Balanced Housing Market in 2022, Housing-Market Mayhem: U.S. Home Sales Likely to Hit Record High of $2.5 Trillion In 2021, REDFIN IS COMMITTED TO AND ABIDES BY THE FAIR HOUSING ACT AND EQUAL OPPORTUNITY ACT. If you find it useful, please properly attribute this resource with a link. Although predicting the future is always an exercise of caution, it is unlikely that the Utah housing market will collapse in 2023. The 2022 for-sale home supply is expected to begin recovering from recent declines, but millennial demand will likely keep supply limited through at least 2025. Realtor.com recently named the Salt Lake City region as the expected No. San Francisco was the most searched for destination among homebuyers looking to leave, followed by Los Angeles, New York, Washington and Chicago. He noted in the early 1980s there were a few (quarterly) periods where prices actually declined before hitting a positive trajectory soon after. Homes in Big Willow Creek Estates are under construction in Draper on Friday, Nov. 11, 2022. If you are looking to purchase your primary residence in todays market, then yes, the time to buy is today! We hope that by publishing this Utah housing market forecast 2022 edition, we have shed some light and provided insight into some of the questions and concerns prospective investors and buyers may have. can also indicate whether homes are lingering on the market or being sold faster than sellers are listing them. After seven years of Salt Lake County sales averaging 18,000 homes, the high prices of 2023 will mean sales will not top 13,000, he predicted, and likely range between 11,000 to 12,000. The Utah housing market is amid a major shift. I have moved the needle accordingly. By April, mortgage rates had begun shooting up. Heres what volatile mortgage rates are doing to your purchasing power, Stuck between rent hikes and high home prices, this family is scraping by to afford a home, still cant afford to buy something at a significantly lower quality, How the housing market is making boomers richer and millennials poorer, how many other Utahns the market has priced out, 79% of Utah households couldnt afford the states median priced home, Why two housing experts disagree on how much Utah home prices will drop in 2023, National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun, What state lawmakers are doing to address Utahs housing crisis, Department of Labor reports that child labor has increased by nearly 70% since 2018, Feds hardwire child care benefits to $39 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Grit and circumstance: Bestselling author Angela Duckworth brings her wisdom to BYU, The starter home in Utah is extinct: How first-time homebuyers could get 20K for new homes, How a new service aims to help teens remove explicit internet images. Peak-to-trough, with the peak being May 2022 , he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the. Based on Redfin calculations of home data from MLS and/or public records. Will it pop or deflate?, disagree over how much home prices will decline, Why two housing experts disagree on how much Utah home prices will drop in 2023, Housing market is correcting but Utahs affordability crisis isnt going away. The counties covered by this report added more than 35,000 new jobs over the past year, which was also a growth rate of 2.6%. Yes! Utah home prices remain significantly higher than the national average. Property values will likely decline over the next 6 to 12 months and then flatten in the Utah housing market. From peak-to-trough, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the mid to low teens, depending on interest rates. With rates hitting record lows of 2%, things are about to change in 2022 as recent trends on 30-year fixed mortgages have already come very close to 3%. Here are Utahs metropolitan areas with the hottest housing markets for volume. Utahs housing market has a tight supply, and while we may see prices decrease somewhat, its not likely to experience a significant decline in housing values. Blame remote work, not speculative bubble, Fed study says, What state lawmakers are doing to address Utahs housing crisis, Department of Labor reports that child labor has increased by nearly 70% since 2018, Feds hardwire child care benefits to $39 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Grit and circumstance: Bestselling author Angela Duckworth brings her wisdom to BYU, The starter home in Utah is extinct: How first-time homebuyers could get 20K for new homes, How a new service aims to help teens remove explicit internet images. A year from now whoevers right has to shave their beard off.. However, they expect the market to enter a correction that will persist into 2023 thanks to the Federal Reserves aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation. Lake Powell can drop your jaw around every bend of the gorgeous reservoir with 200-foot cliffs. I expect the region will continue to see downward pressure on home prices, but a major correction is unlikely. In 2021 the average interest rate was 2.96%, the lowest interest rate that FreddieMac measured since 1971. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K. The time to purchase your primary residence is today and has almost always been today. However, Nelson-Ogilvy sees housing prices cooling off a . There are currently 8,551 residential homes for sale in the United States. Utah has seen a significant increase in population over the past decade, which will likely help with the influx of home listings once everyone gets used to the new lending rates. 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