//-->, Printable Version Melissa joined KNAU's team in 2015 to report on science, health, and the environment. At the same time, power producers are gearing up to craft a fallback plan for extending hydropower production at Glen Canyon Dam if water levels continue to fall. On Tuesday, the lake fell below 3,525 feet above sea level, a key target elevation that water managers have been trying to keep Powell above because it provides a buffer from the minimum level at which Glen Canyon Dam can generate power. google_ad_width = 160; The Colorado River cuts through dry land that was once covered by Lake Powell on September 7, 2022, near Hite, Utah. The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites 0 The Upper Basin reservoirs have already provided 161,000 acre-feet of water pursuant to the imminent need provision of the Drought Response Operations Agreement, including 36,000 acre-feet from Blue Mesa Reservoir in Colorado. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. But the region is battling a multidecade drought with rain harder to come by. A century of river flow records combined with an additional four to five centuries of tree-ring data show that the droughts over the past two decades were not unusual; longer and more severe droughts are a regular part of the climate variability in that part of the continent. Credit: Alex Hager. There is a 10 percent chance that inflows could be higher than the current maximum probable forecast and a 10 percent chance that inflows could be lower than the minimum probable forecast. endstream endobj startxref If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us. Up to 80 percent of water use in the basin is for agricultural purposes, but urban water conservation serves an important purpose, too. (For comparison, the 1991-2020 total water year average is 9.60 maf.) Gas Prices on Lake WEco is funded by multiple donors. hbbd``b`$WX)! Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window), Wind affected on the west and south facing aspects of the Gore Range seen on, April 7, 2022, near Vail. google_color_link = "0000FF"; google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; (At normal water levels, both rivers are essentially part of the reservoir.) But the declining water already has drained some of the fun, he said. The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. Click for . (Due to the angle of sunlight, this image may cause an optical illusion known as relief inversion.). Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section). Hourly releases during February 2023 will fluctuate from a low of approximately 5,797 cfs during the early morning hours to a high of 10,091 cfs during the afternoon and evening hours. Water Data for 20 days surrounding Feb 28, 2022. The critical issue is how to maintain the lake at 3,525, which marks an elevation that is the top of the liquid buffer zone designed to protect the lakes mighty electricity turbines. From there, a swing to the northeast delivers boats into Lake Powell's main artery. The unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell during January was 361 thousand acre-feet (kaf) (107 percent of average). "As a result of this update, the median water year 2022 inflow forecast into Lake Powell decreased by 800,000 acre-feet," USBR stated in a press release distributed Thursday. For more information on the tools we use, consult, Upper Colorado Mainstem Specific Site Forecasts. As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. This is a decrease of 3.33 maf over the total storage at the beginning of water year 2022 when total system storage was 22.87 maf (39 percent of capacity). New 1991-2020 Averages being used this year. The Colorado River flows in from the east around Mille Crag Bend and is swallowed by the lake. The unregulated inflow during the 2000-2022 period has ranged from a low of 2.64 maf (28 percent of average) in water year 2002 to a high of 15.97 maf (166 percent of average) in water year 2011. As of Wednesday, the water level was 3,524.22 feet. As air warms over time, less precipitation makes it to the reservoirs due to evaporation. Our editorial policy and donor list can be viewed atwateredco.org. Lukas noted that the dry soil conditions are factored into the NOAA runoff predictions from the get-go so there shouldnt necessarily be any big surprises with that particular variable. The draft plan is expected to be released next week, according to Becki Bryant, a spokeswoman for Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region. While the lake was significantly higher in 2011 and 2012 than in 2005, a careful comparison of the side canyons reveals that the level was still not back to 1999 levels, when the lake was near full capacity. The Bureau of Reclamation announced on May 3, 2022, two separate urgent drought response actions that will help prop up Lake Powell by nearly 1 million acre-feet (maf) of water over the next 12 months (May 2022 through April 2023). The forecast isnt great, said Kyle Whitaker, Colorado River Manager for the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District, one of the largest diverters of water in the headwaters region of the river. This was the lowest water levels have been since the lake was first constructed in the 1930s. Lake Mead was at elevation 1,064.30 ft. with storage of 8.753 maf or 34 percent of capacity. Reclamation will continue to consult with the Basin States, Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico and other partners on Colorado River operations to consider and determine whether additional measures should be taken to further enhance the preservation of these benefits, as well as recovery protocols, including those of future protective measures for both Lakes Powell and Mead. and last updated 5:24 PM, Sep 24, 2021. Lake Powell is currently 390.33 feet deep at the dam. For additional information, the news release can be found here: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294. Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 11, 2023 There are currently 1,757,155,460,140 gallons of water in Lake Powell! At the west end of Narrow Canyon, the Dirty Devil River joins the lake from the north. Fish & Wildlife Service Endangered Species Success Stories. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powells water levels. Changes in the northeastern reaches of Lake Powell are documented in this series of natural-color images taken by the Landsat series of satellites between 1999 and 2021. As a news piece, this article cites verifiable, third-party sources which have all been thoroughly fact-checked and deemed credible by the Newsroom in accordance with the Civil Constitution. Shortages have been implemented by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in areas like Arizona as water levels in the reservoir have consistently dropped for the past 10 years. Get the most up to date information on Lake Powell's water levels and the status of launch ramps from the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and more with the links and pages below. The period 2000-2022 is the lowest 23-year period since the closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963, with an average unregulated inflow of 8.29 maf, or 93 percent of the 30-year average (1991-2020). Antelope Point Marina on Feb. 3, 2022, in the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area near Page. "I would be reluctant to limit it to years just since 2000, because I think there is some value in acknowledging the variability that goes on in our basin," he says. Federal and state water managers have watched the water level in Lake Powell closely this year. He began his journalism career in New Hampshire, then moved West and became a reporter at the Lafayette News. These long-term projections help water managers plan for future shortages, which are increasingly likely in the Colorado River Basin, in part because of warmer temperatures brought on by global climate change. Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert, it'll take a long time to restore the levels, too. However, the Bureau of Reclamation's 24-month forecast that was just released at the end of last week projects Lake Mead to be at 1,041.10 feet in January 2023. Glen Canyon Dam currently maintains 30 mw (approximately 800 cfs) of generation capacity in reserve in order to respond to a system emergency even when generation rates are already high. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. Though the 2022 forecast isnt expected to be finalized until later this month, water officials expect that more water will have to be released from Upper Basin storage reservoirs this summer because inflows into the lake from the drought-stressed Colorado River are expected to be well below average again, in the 60% to 80% range. Lake Powell is now at a historic low. What's the weather forecast for 2050? Cheap sewer pipe repairs can push toxic fumes into homes and schools heres Hard water: In these metro neighborhoods, few drink the tap water. A visual history of the water level of each of our Lake Powell trips over the past three years. By 2002, the lake level had dropped far enough that the exposed canyon walls created a pale outline around the lake. At the beginning of the series in 1999, water levels in Lake Powell were relatively high, and the water was a clear, dark blue. 04:12 - Source: CNN Climate change also plays a part. The reservoir's levels rise after consistent rain or snowpack melt in the area. Consistent with Section 6.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, Lake Powells operations in water year 2023 are governed by the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier (LEBT) with an initial projected water year release volume of 7.00 maf. Were an initiative of theCenter for Environmental Journalismat the University of Colorado Boulder. Back then, Hannegan said, We made an assumption that our WAPA (Western Area Power Administration) allocation would be firm, reliable and always there. Wednesday snow and wind will be heavy at times leading to difficult if not impossible travel. Shifting the period of record decreased the average unregulated inflow 1.20 maf. Water managers, who . There is approximately an 80 percent probability that a future elevation will fall inside the range of the minimum and maximum inflow scenarios. More by Chris Outcalt, Got a story tip? google_color_link = "0000FF"; The nation's second-largest reservoir is under pressure from climate change and steady demand, and is now . Few expected to ever see this drop in hydropower production, let alone consider what to do if Glen Canyon were to cease electricity production entirely. Reclamation will continue to carefully monitor hydrologic and operational conditions and assess the need for additional responsive actions and/or changes to operations. Lake Powell is at low for water year and down 9.26 feet from the high. But it is concerning. water-data.com LakePowell Water Database . a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and The probable minimum inflow scenario reflects a dry hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 90 percent of the time. The 30-year average was updated in October 2022 from 1981 through 2010 to 1991 through 2020. Significant amounts of snowfall over the winter of 20102011 meant more water for Lake Powell, and this effect lasted into the spring of 2012. Jerd Smith is editor of Fresh Water News. For five years after 2012, snow- and rainfall totals were generally low, as the region suffered through a persistent, long-term drought. Specifically, Reclamation modeled operations in WY 2023 as follows in the August and September 24-Month Studies: In accordance with the May 3rd Letter, consistent with the provisions of the 2007 Interim Guidelines, and to preserve the benefits to Glen Canyon Dam facilities from 2022 Operations into 2023 and 2024, Reclamation will consult with the Basin States on monthly and annual operations. Snow levels will fall to the lowest locations Wednesday night into Thursday morning, before the storm exits eastern Arizona Thursday afternoon. Today is day 151 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. The Bureau of Reclamation's most recent projections show Lake Mead dropping to 1,033.4 feet in elevation by the end of 2023, about 14 feet lower than the reservoir's current level. According to Reclamation, there is a 27% chance that Powell will still stop generating electricity completely over the next four years. Projections at Lake Mead show there is a chance as high as 66% that water levels will decline to 1,025 feet by 2025, triggering a Tier 3 Shortage. The picture was much different 59 years ago, when the giant storage reservoir on the Colorado River was filling, its electricity helping power the West and the revenue from its power sales helping fund endangered fish protection programs across the Colorado River Basin. The water levels at Lake Powell have dropped around 100 feet in the last three years. :pNB/gb2D0p6Ecb :qD_q7wE42TOOSW:Oa^(-]p7y|iZ.8uq:}1y3bJ]!G ) ytRdJp2 +[|}QpEU}V'k{yeKud"xl_-x lJ!UZ`,n!\3{dcb As of September 20, 2021, the water elevation at Glen Canyon Dam was 3,546.93 feet, more than 153 feet below "full pool" (elevation 3,700 feet). The system is appreciated for the water it supplies, but criticized for the environmental problems and cultural losses that have resulted from its creation. The northwestern side branch of Lake Powell remained cut off from the rest of the reservoir. Mitchell declined to discuss the pending drought operations plan. A Tier 3 shortage would impact the amount of . %PDF-1.7 % google_color_text = "000000"; The Water Desk launched in April 2019 with support from the Walton Family Foundation. //2006-10-04: news Under the current most probable forecast, the total water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell is projected to be 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). Precipitation was better, but still slightly below normal in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Under system normal conditions, fluctuations for regulation are typically short lived and generally balance out over the hour with minimal or no noticeable impacts on downstream river flow conditions. Lake Mead's water levels . It can store about five times the average annual flow. The bureau, in consultation with tribal nations and the seven Colorado River Basin states, decided to keep nearly 500,000 acre-feet of water in Lake Powell that had originally been planned to be released to the Lower Basin states of Nevada, Arizona and California this year. Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizonas Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. The declines were first apparent in the side canyons feeding the reservoir which thinned and then shortened. The lake is set to reach. inflow forecast for water year 2022 by approximately 2.2 million acre-feet from . In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. We maintain a strict editorial firewall between our funders and our journalism. Water supply forecast volumes decreased across most of the region, Moser said during the webinar. Surface Water Elevation (feet) Lake Powell End of Month Elevations1 . Lake Powell is so low that it is nearing a dead pool, in which water levels aren't high enough to deliver water downstream. Some Arizona cities have implemented drought management plans to conserve water, but the area continues to use water at a rate that negates Lake Powell's recovery. google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; 159 0 obj <> endobj google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; We are 37% through the Water Year. Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. 2022, a day after Southern California delared a water . To view the 2023 progession of snowpack above Lake Powell, click on Lake Powell Snow Chart. KNAUs Melissa Sevigny reports. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. Please contact the Operations Group via e-mail at ResourceMgr@usbr.gov for additional information. GCC is the official nonprofit partner of Glen Canyon National Recreation Area & Rainbow Bridge National Monument. 15 Day Weather Forecast SW Satellite Weather SW Water Vapor Lake Powell is down 6.18 feet from one year ago. The most recent data is from Monday, February 27th, 2023. Its not a hypothetical situation anymore.. The modeling approach for WY 2023 will apply to 2024. google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; Last week, the Bureau of Reclamation announced extraordinary action to keep the water level at Powell from dropping too low, which could threaten hydropower production at Powells Glen Canyon Dam. The forecast is changing daily and there are still a lot of variables, said Lisa Meiman, a spokeswoman for WAPA. Combined with water withdrawals that many believe are not sustainable, the drought has caused a dramatic drop in Lake Powells water level. That reference period is updated once a decade; it now begins in the 1990s. The last couple months have steadied out a little bit, Cody Moser, a senior hydrologist with NOAA forecast center, said during a recent web briefing to review the most recent report. Even Less water forecast to flow into Lake Powell this year, report says May NOAA runoff report predicts even less water will flow into Lake Powell this year than previously forecasted. google_ad_type = "text_image"; Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. The lake held just 30 percent of its capacity. About 40 million people rely on the Colorado River for domestic use and farmers and ranchers use water from the river to irrigate more than 3 million acres of farmland. Using the approach described in the immediately preceding paragraph, the August 2022 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2023, Lake Powell elevation to be less than 3,525 feet. "This is probably the largest reservoir system in the country in terms of storage. Updated: 10:18 PM MDT April 26, 2022 DENVER Lake Powell, on the Utah-Arizona state line, is part of a river system that supplies water to 40 million people. Scientists say the current drought is the driest on record in the last twelve hundred years. The reduction of releases from Glen Canyon Dam in water year 2022 (resulting in increased storage in Lake Powell) will not affect future operating determinations and will be accounted for as if this volume of water had been delivered to Lake Mead. google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. Depending on the severity of the system emergency, the response from Glen Canyon Dam can be significant, within the full range of the operating capacity of the power plant for as long as is necessary to maintain balance in the transmission system. By Leia Larsen. The drop in the power forecast comes as Upper Colorado River Basin states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming prepare to finalize a new drought operations plan for the giant river system. google_ad_format = "160x600_as"; To view the most current monthly release projections, click on: Lake Powell Release Projections. The annual release volume from Lake Powell during water year 2023 will be 7.77 maf under the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier and will balance the contents between Powell and Mead with annual release volumes from Glen Canyon Dam between 7.00 maf and 9.50 maf as determined under Section 6.D.1 and 7.D of the Interim Guidelines as determined by the Department of the Interior as described above. If Glen Canyon Dam ceases to operate, we are going to have to replace that power somewhere else and it will have a bigger carbon footprint, said Bryan Hannegan, CEO of Holy Cross Energy, which buys Lake Powells hydropower to serve customers in Western Colorado. google_ad_type = "text_image"; Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. Reclamation will also ensure all appropriate consultation with Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico, other federal agencies, water users and non-governmental organizations with respect to implementation of these monthly and annual operations. The March 2023 releases are anticipated to fluctuate between a low of 5,276 cfs to a high of 9,641 cfs. The sediment-filled Colorado River appeared green-brown. There are continued discussions when and how that same amount of water (0.523 maf) will be . Much of that water. Across most of the streams and rivers of the Upper Basin, forecasted runoff ranges from very poor (50% of average) to mediocre (80% of average).. This includes directly interviewing sources and research / analysis of primary source documents. Global warming is expected to make droughts more severe in the future. Graphical view of Lake Powell water data. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites In July 2021, water levels on the lake fell to the lowest point since 1969 and have continued dropping. Electricity produced at Lake Powells Glen Canyon Dam, which serves some 50 Colorado utilities, and dozens of others in the Colorado River Basin, has been cut in half by the 20-year drought, with power levels over the next two years projected to be 47% lower than normal, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. The actual end of water year 2023 system storage may vary from this projection, primarily due to uncertainty regarding this seasons runoff and reservoir inflow. The Colorado Sun is a journalist-owned, award-winning news outlet based in Denver that strives to cover all of Colorado so that our state our community can better understand itself. Encompassing all or parts of Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, Utah and Wyoming. The final NOAA forecast for the season predicts the amount of water to reach Lake Powell this year to be about 60% of average. To view the current inflow forecast relative to past inflows, click on Lake Powell Inflow Forecast. It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert . Additional information into southern Utah ( Due to the northeast delivers boats into Lake Powell is 390.33... Rest of the reservoir which thinned and then shortened water levels at Lake has! 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